As we move through 2025, global trade is entering one of its most unpredictable phases in recent memory. With major economies adopting protectionist measures, shipping and logistics markets realigning post-pandemic, and digitalisation efforts accelerating across the trade finance landscape, the industry is facing a convergence of disruption and opportunity.
At Traydstream, we believe this inflection point represents not only a challenge—but a long-overdue wake-up call to modernise the way we support and finance global commerce.
Trade Growth Recalibrated: WTO’s Sobering Outlook
In April 2025, the World Trade Organization (WTO) dramatically revised its forecast for global merchandise trade, projecting a 0.2% contraction, down sharply from the 2.7% growth estimated just six months earlier. The forecast adjustment reflects a marked deterioration in trade flows, driven primarily by geopolitical tensions and retaliatory tariff regimes now playing out between the world’s largest economies.
“A fragmentation of the global economy into rival blocs would be costly and could reduce long-term global GDP by 5% or more,” warned WTO Director-General Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala during a press briefing in Geneva.
The effects of these policy shifts are already being felt. U.S.–China trade volumes are expected to decline by over 80% in 2025 due to the reintroduction of sweeping tariffs by both nations. The U.S. recently imposed a 145% average tariff on Chinese imports, with China retaliating with its own tariffs ranging up to 125% on U.S. goods.
While some of these measures are politically motivated ahead of upcoming elections, their economic implications are global and far-reaching, potentially curbing supply chains, redirecting trade routes, and depressing emerging market export potential.
Freight Markets and the Cost of Moving Goods
Beyond tariffs, trade is also being reshaped by macroeconomic constraints in the freight and logistics sectors.
The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI)—a key barometer of U.S. domestic shipping activity—rose slightly by 0.9% in February, yet remains below pre-pandemic highs. This sluggish recovery is indicative of a broader softening in global logistics.
Meanwhile, container shipping rates that had briefly stabilised in 2024 are once again rising. The Drewry World Container Index shows a moderate upward trend, particularly on transpacific routes, as capacity tightens and fuel prices remain volatile due to ongoing tensions in the Red Sea and wider Middle East.
Air freight, often seen as a bellwether for economic activity, has also seen uneven demand. According to IATA, global air cargo demand fell by 3.5% year-on-year in Q1 2025, driven by declining volumes from major manufacturing hubs.
Supply Chains Seek Stability in an Unstable World
All of these data points—tariffs, shipping costs, weakened demand—feed into a single narrative: resilience is the new currency of global trade.
Multinational corporates are diversifying supply chains, investing in nearshoring strategies, and seeking greater visibility into working capital. Banks and trade finance providers must respond by enabling faster, more flexible financing options and by adopting technologies that reduce friction in trade processing.
This is where digitisation becomes more than a buzzword—it becomes a necessity.
Reimagining Trade Finance Through Technology
Trade finance has historically been one of the most paper-intensive and opaque parts of the financial services industry. However, the digital transformation journey that began in earnest during the COVID-19 pandemic is now accelerating, as firms seek automation, compliance accuracy, and real-time decision-making tools.
Traydstream, as a pioneer in trade document digitisation and compliance automation, has witnessed this shift first-hand.
“It’s remarkable how ‘unchanged’ the world of trade has remained over the last 100 years,” reflects Sameer Sehgal, CEO of Traydstream. “Most of our daily lives have gone digital—from banking to shopping to travel—yet trade finance continues to wallow in paper. Not much has changed since my first day in trade banking in the 90s, stamping documents all day long. It’s high time that it changed for the better.”
Traydstream’s AI-powered platform automates the review of trade documents, flagging discrepancies, sanctions risks, and policy breaches in real-time—transforming what used to take days into a matter of minutes. For banks and corporates alike, this shift allows for faster turnaround, lower operational risk, and improved client experience.
Moreover, predictive analytics built into the platform help identify potential compliance issues and inefficiencies before they become costly errors—particularly vital as global sanctions regimes and ESG requirements evolve rapidly.
Looking Ahead: A Resilient, Transparent Ecosystem
The short-term trade outlook may be clouded by geopolitical headwinds, but in the medium to long term, a more digitally enabled and agile trade finance infrastructure will be the key to sustainable growth.
Central banks are beginning to factor trade fragmentation into monetary policy decisions. Corporates are reassessing long-held assumptions about sourcing and production. Financial institutions are recognising that technology is not just an enabler—it’s a differentiator.
As we move deeper into 2025, several developments will be crucial to monitor:
New corridors: ASEAN, Africa, and LATAM regions may see accelerated growth as companies diversify sourcing.
Regulatory tech: Increased interest in RegTech solutions to meet sanctions, KYC/AML, and ESG reporting requirements.
Digital trade ecosystems: Platforms offering seamless integration across banking, shipping, and insurance are gaining traction.
Digital negotiable instruments: The UNCITRAL Model Law on Electronic Transferable Records (MLETR) is gaining momentum in adoption, paving the way for digital Bills of Lading and Letters of Credit.
Conclusion: The Opportunity Amidst the Challenge
Trade is fundamentally about movement—of goods, capital, and trust. While 2025 may be characterised by heightened complexity and constraint, it also presents an opportunity to rebuild a better, faster, and fairer global trading system.
At Traydstream, we are proud to partner with forward-thinking institutions that are not only adapting to change but helping shape the future of trade. Through smarter tools, seamless integration, and shared innovation, we believe the path forward is not only possible—but profoundly transformative.
For more insights into Traydstream’s digital solutions and how we’re helping reshape trade finance in 2025, visit traydstream.com.
